National Retail Federation Report
With federal data releases on pause, market watchers have been relying more on private sector reports for clues on the economy. The National Retail Federation’s (NRF) version of September Retail Sales showed a broad and meaningful pullback in consumer spending — a sharp contrast to the resilience we’ve seen all year.
While it’s normal to see a slowdown between back-to-school and the holiday season, this could also be an early signal that the consumer is starting to tap the brakes. The NRF downplayed the weaker numbers, expressing confidence that spending will rebound, but we’ll be watching closely to see if this softness carries into Q4.
Cash Buyers Cooling Off
Cash buyers have made up roughly one-third of all real estate transactions this year — but that number is starting to edge lower. A big reason could be the recent drop in mortgage rates, which makes financing more attractive even for those who could pay in cash.
We’re also seeing more participation from first-time buyers and other rate-sensitive borrowers, which is a healthy sign for the housing market. Fewer all-cash purchases mean more mortgage activity — a welcome shift for our industry.
Looking Ahead
The Bureau of Labor Statistics was originally expected to delay its key reports due to the government shutdown, but the agency is now working to release September’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) — a critical input for Social Security adjustments due by November 1. While the release may slip from its scheduled October 15 date, it does appear we’ll get it this month.
Here’s the tentative economic calendar for next week:
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Monday: Markets Closed (Columbus Day)
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Wednesday: Mortgage Applications, Consumer Price Index (CPI)
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Thursday: Producer Price Index (PPI), Retail Sales
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Friday: Housing Starts & Building Permits
As always, we’ll keep an eye on how these reports shape market sentiment and the Fed’s path forward — both of which directly influence mortgage rates and borrower affordability.