Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE)
The Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, PCE, showed headline inflation rising 0.3% in August, coming in a touch hotter than expected. On an annual basis, the rate edged higher from 2.6% to 2.7%, exactly in line with market estimates.
Core PCE—which strips out food and energy and is the Fed’s main focus—rose 0.2% on the month, while the year-over-year figure held steady at 2.9%. Both met expectations.
Looking under the hood, the 3-month annualized Core PCE run rate is still elevated at 2.9%, likely reflecting the temporary impact of tariffs, while the 6-month run rate sits at a more moderate 2.48%.
Shelter costs continue to weigh heavily on the data. Shelter rose 0.36% last month and 3.9% year over year, with rents up 0.3% and Owners’ Equivalent Rent up 0.38%. But real-time rent trackers show blended rents closer to 2.5% year over year. Given Shelter’s heavy weighting in Core PCE, this means the reported 2.9% Core PCE is overstated by roughly 0.3%—true inflation is likely closer to 2.6%.
Looking ahead, September’s PCE (due at the end of October) may be another challenging report, since it will be replacing a relatively low 0.28% Core PCE from last year.
Income and Spending
Personal incomes rose 0.4% in August, while consumer spending increased 0.6%, both slightly stronger than estimates. The savings rate ticked down from 4.8% to 4.6%.
Potential Government Shutdown
If Congress doesn’t pass a funding bill by October 1, a government shutdown will begin. That could impact the release of key economic data. We’re likely to still see JOLTS and ADP, but Jobless Claims and the all-important BLS Jobs Report may be delayed, depending on how funding is handled for the BLS.