Revelio Labs — Labor is Still Softening
Revelio Labs — which we respect a lot — publishes their own “Jobs Report” by tracking over 100 million U.S. profiles. That’s roughly two-thirds of the workforce. Compare that to BLS — which captures only 27% — and the Household Survey, which is literally 60,000 phone calls (0.03% of the labor force).
Revelio is a much broader read — and their data still shows labor weakening.
They reported 9,000 job losses in October — and they revised September down even further, from 27,000 to -33,000. That’s meaningful deterioration.
Keep in mind — Revelio may be catching weakness ADP isn’t — because Revelio does include government workers. And we’re now seeing that show up in Federal continuing claims — which just hit the highest since 2019.
ADP also isn’t fully capturing big layoffs from massive enterprise companies if they’re not ADP customers — and we’ve seen real cuts from major tech names.
On top of that — Indeed is showing job openings at the lowest levels since February 2021.
So the signals everywhere are leaning soft.
Yet — some Fed members are still downplaying this. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said the labor market is “OK” and “stable.” She’s not worried about labor — but she is very focused on inflation — without properly adjusting for temporary tariff distortions or the known overstatement from shelter and portfolio management.
She thinks policy is barely restrictive — if at all — and she’s clearly not in favor of a December 10 cut.
But New York Fed President John Williams — who is always a voter — did shift his stance recently.
He now says R* — the neutral rate — is lower than he previously believed. Previously he had assumed R* at ~0.75% — at the high end of the Fed distribution. Now he believes it has moved lower and will continue to move lower.
That matters.
Williams’ updated view implies the Fed is actually more restrictive than he thought — and that there is room to cut further before getting near neutral.
Translation for mortgage markets:
Revelio’s labor signal leans dovish.
Williams’ shift on R* leans dovish.
Hammack’s messaging leans hawkish — but she’s ignoring known distortions.
Net: The data is softening — even if some Fed voices are pretending it isn’t.