Diana Olick from CNBC is back with another alarming headline—but once again, the narrative doesn’t match the full story. For years, Olick has been consistently negative on housing, even as the market has proven remarkably resilient. Over the past five years alone, home prices have climbed roughly 60%, despite repeated predictions of major declines. Housing has been a strong long-term performer for decades—85 years of data show only a brief period of sustained price drops during the housing bubble.
Her latest headline reads:
“New foreclosures jump 20% in October, a sign of more distress in the housing market.”
The problem? Most people won’t read past the headline—and that headline can scare buyers right out of the market. But buried deeper in the article, she notes that the increase is coming off extremely low levels. Foreclosures today remain less than half, even a third, of what’s considered normal. And remember, foreclosure moratoriums in 2021 suppressed activity dramatically—so even now, levels remain historically low with no sign of systemic distress.
Looking Ahead to the December 10 Fed Meeting
We’re now 26 days away from the next Fed rate decision, and several Fed members have weighed in this week:
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Boston Fed President Collins (voting): Against a cut—she believes inflation is too high and isn’t concerned about labor market softness.
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Kansas City President Schmid (voting): Also against a cut; he dissented at the October 29 meeting.
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St. Louis President Musalem (voting): Inflation-focused as well; expects unemployment to rise from 4.3% to 4.5% but still doesn’t support easing.
Non-voting members also spoke, including Atlanta’s Bostic, and Dallas’s Logan and Cleveland’s Hammack—both of whom will vote next year. All are leaning against a December cut.
Minneapolis President Kashkari is undecided, having opposed the October cut but signaling he could go either way in December.
Market Odds Have Shifted Dramatically
Before Powell’s hawkish cut on October 29—when he made it clear a December cut was far from guaranteed—the market was pricing in a 95% chance of a cut on December 10.
After Powell’s comments and similar messaging from other Fed officials, those odds have fallen to 49%—essentially a coin toss.
But remember: these probabilities become less reliable the farther out you go. Now that the government has reopened and fresh economic data is about to hit, any weak reports could quickly shift sentiment among Fed voters.
The Jobs Data May Be the Deciding Factor
The labor market continues to soften. Nearly every week brings a new round of high-profile layoffs. Just yesterday, Verizon announced a 15% workforce reduction—about 15,000 jobs.
ADP’s data tells an even clearer story. Over the last three months, the U.S. has created an average of just 3,333 private-sector jobs per month—down sharply from more than 200,000 per month a year ago. The weakening trend is undeniable, even if some Fed officials remain hesitant to acknowledge it.
NEC Director Kevin Hassett added that the long-delayed September Jobs Report will likely be released next week. The October Jobs Report will follow, though only the Business Survey will be published—meaning the unemployment rate from the Household Survey will not be included. Still, weak job creation alone may be enough to push certain Fed members toward supporting a December cut.