Pending Home Sales
Pending Home Sales—signed contracts on existing homes—rose 1.9% in October, beating expectations of a 0.5% gain. On a year-over-year basis, sales are essentially flat, down just 0.4%.
The trend, however, continues to improve. This is the third consecutive monthly increase, and the pace of activity is now at the highest level of the year. Coming on the heels of a stronger-than-expected New Home Sales report, this momentum points to a firmer Existing Home Sales number for November.
Mortgage Applications
Purchase applications continue to strengthen. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported an 8% increase last week and a 20% gain year over year.
Rates held steady at 6.4%. Refinances pulled back 6% last week, but are still up a strong 117% compared to last year—a sign that more homeowners are finding opportunities as rates stabilize.
Initial Jobless Claims
Initial Jobless Claims fell by 6,000 to 216,000 last week, showing that layoffs remain limited for now—even as announced job cuts continue to trend higher.
Continuing Claims rose by 7,000 to 1.96 million, hovering just under the 2-million mark and sitting near the highest level in four years. The story remains the same: firings are low, but hiring is even lower, making it harder for those who lose jobs to find new ones.
Durable Goods Orders
Durable Goods Orders, which track major purchases like machinery and equipment, rose 0.5% last month, outperforming estimates of a 0.3% increase. Late-year strength may reflect businesses taking advantage of bonus depreciation opportunities before year-end, particularly in categories like aircraft.
Core Durable Goods (excluding defense and aircraft) rose 0.9%, well above expectations. This contrasts with yesterday’s softer Retail Sales report and highlights the mixed signals within the broader economy.
Core Shipments—used directly in GDP calculations—also increased 0.9%, which could lead to a slight upward revision in GDP estimates.