Weekly Market update

Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker Wage growth in August held steady at 4.1%, unchanged from July and down from 4.6% a year ago. For Job Stayers, wage gains slowed to 3.8% from 4.1%, while Job Switchers saw a pickup to 4.4% from 4.0%. The Cost of Waiting With inflation stabilizing, the labor market cooling, and the […]

BLS Jobs Report – Weak Across the Board The August Jobs Report came in far softer than expected. The BLS showed just 22,000 jobs created, well below estimates of 75,000. Prior months were also revised down by a net 21,000, with June now showing a negative number – breaking a 54-month streak of job gains. […]

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) – Market Update The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, PCE, came in right on target for July. Headline inflation rose 0.2% month-over-month and held steady at 2.6% year-over-year, matching expectations. The Core rate—which strips out food and energy and is the Fed’s main focus—also rose 0.3% monthly and ticked higher from 2.8% […]

Powell at Jackson Hole – What It Means for Rates Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged that job growth has slowed much more than previously thought, with recent revisions confirming a softer labor market. He noted that downside risks to employment are building, and if they show up, they could hit quickly through layoffs and rising […]

Fed Commentary Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee noted that he had been fairly comfortable with this year’s inflation reports—until the latest PPI release showed services inflation rising 1.1%. While he cautioned against overreacting to a single CPI or PPI print, he made it clear that the Fed will be watching closely for trends. If inflation […]

The big news this week was the announcement of Fed Governor Kugler’s replacement. President Trump said he will fill the vacancy with Council of Economic Advisors Chair Stephen Miran. While Trump noted he is still searching for a permanent replacement, Miran’s appointment makes him a serious contender for the next Fed Chair. This also signals […]

BLS Jobs Report – Big Miss, Bigger Revisions The July Jobs Report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) missed the mark, with just 73,000 jobs added, well below expectations of 110,000. But the headline doesn’t tell the whole story. Under the surface, the raw (non-seasonally adjusted) data actually showed 1.07 million jobs lost. The […]

Fed Leaves Rates Unchanged – Dovish Shift Emerging The Fed held rates steady yesterday, keeping the Fed Funds Rate at a range of 4.25% to 4.50%, as expected. But there was a notable development: two Fed Governors, Waller and Bowman, dissented and pushed for a rate cut. This marked the first time in 32 years […]

New Home Sales – Up Slightly, But Watch the Mix New Home Sales, which track signed contracts on new builds, rose 0.6% in June to a 627,000-unit annualized pace. At first glance, the median home price appears to have dropped sharply—down nearly 5% to $401,800 from $422,700 last month. That headline will likely make the […]

Fed Governor Waller Makes the Case for a Cut Fed Governor Christopher Waller, a voting member and one of the more respected voices at the Fed—and a potential candidate for the next Fed Chair—made a strong case for a 25bp rate cut at the upcoming July 30 meeting. Inflation Commentary Waller pointed out that inflation […]