Weekly Market update

National Retail Federation Report   With federal data releases on pause, market watchers have been relying more on private sector reports for clues on the economy. The National Retail Federation’s (NRF) version of September Retail Sales showed a broad and meaningful pullback in consumer spending — a sharp contrast to the resilience we’ve seen all […]

Fed Talk Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee joined CNBC this morning with some mixed messages on the labor market. He first described conditions as “pretty stable,” only to later admit they’re deteriorating. We’re not sure what more the Fed needs to see to acknowledge that the labor market is weakening — ADP has reported job […]

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) The Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, PCE, showed headline inflation rising 0.3% in August, coming in a touch hotter than expected. On an annual basis, the rate edged higher from 2.6% to 2.7%, exactly in line with market estimates. Core PCE—which strips out food and energy and is the Fed’s main focus—rose […]

Cotality Rent Index Shelter costs—mainly rent—make up the largest portion of both CPI and PCE, which is why the latest Cotality Rent Index is so important. Rents rose just 0.2% in July, well below the historical average of 0.7% for that month. On a year-over-year basis, rent growth slowed from 2.9% to 2.3%, a meaningful […]

Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker Wage growth in August held steady at 4.1%, unchanged from July and down from 4.6% a year ago. For Job Stayers, wage gains slowed to 3.8% from 4.1%, while Job Switchers saw a pickup to 4.4% from 4.0%. The Cost of Waiting With inflation stabilizing, the labor market cooling, and the […]

BLS Jobs Report – Weak Across the Board The August Jobs Report came in far softer than expected. The BLS showed just 22,000 jobs created, well below estimates of 75,000. Prior months were also revised down by a net 21,000, with June now showing a negative number – breaking a 54-month streak of job gains. […]

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) – Market Update The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, PCE, came in right on target for July. Headline inflation rose 0.2% month-over-month and held steady at 2.6% year-over-year, matching expectations. The Core rate—which strips out food and energy and is the Fed’s main focus—also rose 0.3% monthly and ticked higher from 2.8% […]

Powell at Jackson Hole – What It Means for Rates Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged that job growth has slowed much more than previously thought, with recent revisions confirming a softer labor market. He noted that downside risks to employment are building, and if they show up, they could hit quickly through layoffs and rising […]

Fed Commentary Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee noted that he had been fairly comfortable with this year’s inflation reports—until the latest PPI release showed services inflation rising 1.1%. While he cautioned against overreacting to a single CPI or PPI print, he made it clear that the Fed will be watching closely for trends. If inflation […]

The big news this week was the announcement of Fed Governor Kugler’s replacement. President Trump said he will fill the vacancy with Council of Economic Advisors Chair Stephen Miran. While Trump noted he is still searching for a permanent replacement, Miran’s appointment makes him a serious contender for the next Fed Chair. This also signals […]