Weekly Market update

Producer Price Index (PPI)   The December Producer Price Index came in hotter than expected, with headline prices rising 0.5% versus estimates of 0.2%. On a year-over-year basis, PPI held at 3%, even though markets were looking for a pullback to 2.7%. Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, also surprised to the upside, rising […]

NAR Realtor Confidence Index The National Association of Realtors (NAR) released its Realtor Confidence Index for December, and the takeaway is straightforward: Realtors are increasingly confident that the first quarter of 2026 will be stronger than 2025. Here’s what the December data shows: Homes sold above list price: 16%, unchanged from last year Cancellations: 5%, […]

The Media Noise vs. the Real Housing Story The media is back at it again. ATTOM Data Solutions recently released an article with the headline, “U.S. Foreclosure Activity Increases in 2025.”That headline was quickly echoed by other outlets, including HousingWire, which added fuel to the fire with, “U.S. foreclosure filings rise 14% in 2025 as […]

BLS Jobs Report – Crestone Take   The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the December Jobs Report, showing just 50,000 jobs created. On top of that, prior months were revised meaningfully lower. November was revised down from 64,000 to 56,000 jobs (with one more revision still to come), and October was revised further into negative […]

Fed Minutes — Key Takeaways The Fed Minutes from the December 10 meeting were released yesterday afternoon and offered a clearer look at how policymakers are thinking as we head into the new year. Overall, the tone leaned dovish. Most Fed members indicated they would like to cut rates further if inflation continues to ease […]

GDP and Jobless Claims — What’s Really Going On Yesterday we walked through the first look at Q3 GDP, which came in at a strong 4.3% annualized growth rate. On the surface, that sounds like a booming economy—but it doesn’t line up with how things actually feel on the ground. That disconnect highlights some of […]

Markets & Rates Recap Markets wrapped up the week on solid footing. Stocks moved higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 183 points to 48,134 and the S&P 500 gaining nearly 60 points to close at 6,834. Mortgage bonds slipped modestly on the day, down about 6 basis points, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield […]

Opportunity in Housing The latest Fannie Mae & Pulsenomics Home Price Expectations Survey—which compiles views from roughly 150 of the top economists in the country—just dropped for Q4, and the takeaway for housing is clear: the long-term opportunity remains compelling. Yes, today’s rate environment gets most of the attention. But rates don’t tell the full […]

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) – Crestone Mortgage Take The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, PCE, came in right on target for September. Headline PCE increased 0.3% for the month, matching expectations, and the year-over-year figure edged up from 2.7% to 2.8%. Core PCE—what the Fed truly focuses on because it strips out food and energy—also landed […]

Pending Home Sales Pending Home Sales—signed contracts on existing homes—rose 1.9% in October, beating expectations of a 0.5% gain. On a year-over-year basis, sales are essentially flat, down just 0.4%. The trend, however, continues to improve. This is the third consecutive monthly increase, and the pace of activity is now at the highest level of […]