Weekly Market update

Markets & Rates Recap Markets wrapped up the week on solid footing. Stocks moved higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 183 points to 48,134 and the S&P 500 gaining nearly 60 points to close at 6,834. Mortgage bonds slipped modestly on the day, down about 6 basis points, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield […]

Opportunity in Housing The latest Fannie Mae & Pulsenomics Home Price Expectations Survey—which compiles views from roughly 150 of the top economists in the country—just dropped for Q4, and the takeaway for housing is clear: the long-term opportunity remains compelling. Yes, today’s rate environment gets most of the attention. But rates don’t tell the full […]

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) – Crestone Mortgage Take The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, PCE, came in right on target for September. Headline PCE increased 0.3% for the month, matching expectations, and the year-over-year figure edged up from 2.7% to 2.8%. Core PCE—what the Fed truly focuses on because it strips out food and energy—also landed […]

Pending Home Sales Pending Home Sales—signed contracts on existing homes—rose 1.9% in October, beating expectations of a 0.5% gain. On a year-over-year basis, sales are essentially flat, down just 0.4%. The trend, however, continues to improve. This is the third consecutive monthly increase, and the pace of activity is now at the highest level of […]

Fed Commentary Shifts Rate Expectations   This morning, New York Fed President John Williams signaled that the Fed may need to cut rates in the near term, noting that labor-market weakness now poses a greater risk than inflation. “Near term” is doing a lot of heavy lifting here—it’s a clear indication he would support a […]

Diana Olick from CNBC is back with another alarming headline—but once again, the narrative doesn’t match the full story. For years, Olick has been consistently negative on housing, even as the market has proven remarkably resilient. Over the past five years alone, home prices have climbed roughly 60%, despite repeated predictions of major declines. Housing […]

Revelio Labs — Labor is Still Softening Revelio Labs — which we respect a lot — publishes their own “Jobs Report” by tracking over 100 million U.S. profiles. That’s roughly two-thirds of the workforce. Compare that to BLS — which captures only 27% — and the Household Survey, which is literally 60,000 phone calls (0.03% […]

Fed Comments Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid was on CNBC this morning explaining why he dissented on Wednesday — he didn’t want the 25bp cut. And based on how he framed things, if a cut is proposed in December, he’ll likely dissent again. Schmid’s read on inflation is overstated. He called Core at 3%. […]

Consumer Price Index — September Update The September CPI report came in slightly cooler than expected, showing overall inflation rising 0.3% for the month, one tenth below forecasts. On a year-over-year basis, inflation ticked up from 2.9% to 3%, a touch softer than the market’s expectation of 3.1%. The biggest driver of the monthly gain […]

Why Adjustable-Rate Mortgages Deserve a Closer Look   Adjustable-Rate Mortgages (ARMs) have been gaining real momentum, making up a growing share of total loan applications. As the Fed continues to ease and rates trend lower, that momentum will likely build. Many borrowers shy away from ARMs because of their variable nature after the fixed period—but […]