Weekly Market update

BLS Jobs Report – Crestone Take   The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the December Jobs Report, showing just 50,000 jobs created. On top of that, prior months were revised meaningfully lower. November was revised down from 64,000 to 56,000 jobs (with one more revision still to come), and October was revised further into negative […]

Fed Minutes — Key Takeaways The Fed Minutes from the December 10 meeting were released yesterday afternoon and offered a clearer look at how policymakers are thinking as we head into the new year. Overall, the tone leaned dovish. Most Fed members indicated they would like to cut rates further if inflation continues to ease […]

GDP and Jobless Claims — What’s Really Going On Yesterday we walked through the first look at Q3 GDP, which came in at a strong 4.3% annualized growth rate. On the surface, that sounds like a booming economy—but it doesn’t line up with how things actually feel on the ground. That disconnect highlights some of […]

Markets & Rates Recap Markets wrapped up the week on solid footing. Stocks moved higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 183 points to 48,134 and the S&P 500 gaining nearly 60 points to close at 6,834. Mortgage bonds slipped modestly on the day, down about 6 basis points, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield […]

Opportunity in Housing The latest Fannie Mae & Pulsenomics Home Price Expectations Survey—which compiles views from roughly 150 of the top economists in the country—just dropped for Q4, and the takeaway for housing is clear: the long-term opportunity remains compelling. Yes, today’s rate environment gets most of the attention. But rates don’t tell the full […]

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) – Crestone Mortgage Take The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, PCE, came in right on target for September. Headline PCE increased 0.3% for the month, matching expectations, and the year-over-year figure edged up from 2.7% to 2.8%. Core PCE—what the Fed truly focuses on because it strips out food and energy—also landed […]

Pending Home Sales Pending Home Sales—signed contracts on existing homes—rose 1.9% in October, beating expectations of a 0.5% gain. On a year-over-year basis, sales are essentially flat, down just 0.4%. The trend, however, continues to improve. This is the third consecutive monthly increase, and the pace of activity is now at the highest level of […]

Fed Commentary Shifts Rate Expectations   This morning, New York Fed President John Williams signaled that the Fed may need to cut rates in the near term, noting that labor-market weakness now poses a greater risk than inflation. “Near term” is doing a lot of heavy lifting here—it’s a clear indication he would support a […]

Diana Olick from CNBC is back with another alarming headline—but once again, the narrative doesn’t match the full story. For years, Olick has been consistently negative on housing, even as the market has proven remarkably resilient. Over the past five years alone, home prices have climbed roughly 60%, despite repeated predictions of major declines. Housing […]

Revelio Labs — Labor is Still Softening Revelio Labs — which we respect a lot — publishes their own “Jobs Report” by tracking over 100 million U.S. profiles. That’s roughly two-thirds of the workforce. Compare that to BLS — which captures only 27% — and the Household Survey, which is literally 60,000 phone calls (0.03% […]