Weekly Market update

Fed Comments Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid was on CNBC this morning explaining why he dissented on Wednesday — he didn’t want the 25bp cut. And based on how he framed things, if a cut is proposed in December, he’ll likely dissent again. Schmid’s read on inflation is overstated. He called Core at 3%. […]

Consumer Price Index — September Update The September CPI report came in slightly cooler than expected, showing overall inflation rising 0.3% for the month, one tenth below forecasts. On a year-over-year basis, inflation ticked up from 2.9% to 3%, a touch softer than the market’s expectation of 3.1%. The biggest driver of the monthly gain […]

Why Adjustable-Rate Mortgages Deserve a Closer Look   Adjustable-Rate Mortgages (ARMs) have been gaining real momentum, making up a growing share of total loan applications. As the Fed continues to ease and rates trend lower, that momentum will likely build. Many borrowers shy away from ARMs because of their variable nature after the fixed period—but […]

National Retail Federation Report   With federal data releases on pause, market watchers have been relying more on private sector reports for clues on the economy. The National Retail Federation’s (NRF) version of September Retail Sales showed a broad and meaningful pullback in consumer spending — a sharp contrast to the resilience we’ve seen all […]

Fed Talk Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee joined CNBC this morning with some mixed messages on the labor market. He first described conditions as “pretty stable,” only to later admit they’re deteriorating. We’re not sure what more the Fed needs to see to acknowledge that the labor market is weakening — ADP has reported job […]

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) The Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, PCE, showed headline inflation rising 0.3% in August, coming in a touch hotter than expected. On an annual basis, the rate edged higher from 2.6% to 2.7%, exactly in line with market estimates. Core PCE—which strips out food and energy and is the Fed’s main focus—rose […]

Cotality Rent Index Shelter costs—mainly rent—make up the largest portion of both CPI and PCE, which is why the latest Cotality Rent Index is so important. Rents rose just 0.2% in July, well below the historical average of 0.7% for that month. On a year-over-year basis, rent growth slowed from 2.9% to 2.3%, a meaningful […]

Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker Wage growth in August held steady at 4.1%, unchanged from July and down from 4.6% a year ago. For Job Stayers, wage gains slowed to 3.8% from 4.1%, while Job Switchers saw a pickup to 4.4% from 4.0%. The Cost of Waiting With inflation stabilizing, the labor market cooling, and the […]

BLS Jobs Report – Weak Across the Board The August Jobs Report came in far softer than expected. The BLS showed just 22,000 jobs created, well below estimates of 75,000. Prior months were also revised down by a net 21,000, with June now showing a negative number – breaking a 54-month streak of job gains. […]

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) – Market Update The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, PCE, came in right on target for July. Headline inflation rose 0.2% month-over-month and held steady at 2.6% year-over-year, matching expectations. The Core rate—which strips out food and energy and is the Fed’s main focus—also rose 0.3% monthly and ticked higher from 2.8% […]